Newsletter
The AI Bubble
“Some development, seemingly new and desirable…captures the financial mind…the price of the object of speculation goes up…this increase and the prospect attract new buyers…the speculation building on itself provides its own momentum…There are those who are persuaded that some new price-enhancing circumstance is in control …a new world of greatly, even infinitely increasing returns…then there…
Key Provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and the Potential Impact on Your Taxes
On July 4, 2025, President Donald Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) into law, marking a significant milestone in tax legislation with far-reaching implications. Most notably, the bill solidifies and extends many provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), which were set to expire at the end of 2025.…
What’s Next?
“ELECTIONS HAVE CONSEQUENCES”, and this one is certainly more consequential than most. The new administration has promised nothing short of a revolution. Whether or not they can deliver is yet to be seen, but at least we can look at their proposals, and try to determine their likely effect on the economy, financial markets and…
Is Value Investing Dead?
Investing has always been dominated by two schools of thought, growth and value. Buying companies with exceptional growth rates makes sense. After all, if the object of the game is to make money as fast as possible, concentrating on those few companies that can outperform their peers should give you the best chance of winning. The value school…
The End of the Free Lunch
In our last letter we warned that there are major changes happening in the world economy: “The Times Are Changing”. In this letter we would like to reiterate what we are seeing and lay out how we are adapting to the new realities in greater detail. We are seeing the first significant inflationary pressure in…
Compass Turns 25
In 1997 Bill and Carolyn founded Compass. After a combined 23 years with major brokerage firms, they wanted something better; better technology, less bureaucracy, lower expenses and most importantly, the ability to focus on clients instead of the firm. It’s hard to believe it now, but not long before Compass started, major brokerage firms had…
Between a Rock and a Hard Place
The Federal Reserve is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Since the Great Financial Crisis, the Fed was able to implement expansionary monetary policies without having to worry about inflation. The market took its cue from the Fed that bad times could be fixed with lower interest rates and asset purchases. Covid changed…
The Times They are a Changing
Change is generally gradual. It progresses so slowly that it goes unnoticed until there is an inflection point, an event or events that make the new direction undeniable. We think we are at an inflection point and believe the next decade will be very different than the last for investors. Change is coming because the…
Early Take on the Omicron Variant
This morning on Face the Nation, Dr. Scott Gottlieb asked four important questions which we will learn the answers to in the coming weeks. 1) Is the Omicron strain of Covid more virulent than previous strains?2) Does this strain escape immunity?3) Does this escape from immunity increase transmissibility?4) Do vaccines, including boosters, and previous infection…
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